Updated November 2019. The fixed rate will be 0.20% for I bonds issued from November 1, 2019 through April 30th, 2020. This is a drop from the previous fixed rate of 0.50%. The variable inflation-indexed rate for this 6-month period will be 2.02% (as was predicted). The total rate on any specific bond is the sum of the fixed and variable rates, changing every 6 months. If you buy a new bond in between November 2019 and April 2020, you’ll get 2.22% for the first 6 months. This isn’t that bad given the recent rate cuts. See you again in mid-April for the next early prediction for May 2020.
Original post 10/14/19:
Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. You could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.
New inflation numbers were just announced at
New inflation rate prediction. March 2019 CPI-U was 254.202. September 2019 CPI-U was 256.759, for a semi-annual increase of 1.01%. Using the
Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until 12 months have gone by, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A known “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month.
Buying in October 2019. If you buy before the end of October, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.50%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 1.90% for the next 6 months (0.50 + 1.40). For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.50 + 2.02 = 2.52%.
Let’s look at a worst-case scenario, where you hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2019 and sell on October 1, 2020, you’ll earn a ~1.72% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. If you held for three months longer, you’d be looking at a ~1.89% annualized return for a 14-month holding period (assuming my math is correct). Compare with the
Buying in November 2019. If you buy in November 2019, you will get 2.02% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS. In the past 6 months, the
If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your purchase month. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (set at purchase) + variable rate (minimum floor of 0%).
Buy now or wait? In the short-term, these I bond rates will probably not beat a top CD. If you intend to be a long-term holder, a factor to consider is that the October fixed rate is 0.5% and that it will likely drop at least a little in November in my opinion. You may want to lock in that higher fixed rate now.
Unique features. I have a separate post on
Over the years, I have accumulated a nice pile of I-Bonds and now consider it part of the inflation-linked bond allocation inside my
Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is
For more background, see the rest of my
[Image: 1946 Savings Bond poster from US Treasury –
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